Poverty in Country On the Retreat, Figures Show

from All Africa

Business Day (Johannesburg)

By Mariam Isa
Johannesburg

POVERTY in SA declined strongly between 2002 and last year, official data showed yesterday, but analysts remain divided on whether the government will achieve its goal of halving the number of poor South Africans by 2014.

The ratio of households in which one child went hungry fell to 2,4% last year from 6,7% in 2002, while the ratio in which an adult went hungry fell to 2,5% from 6,9%, according to an annual survey from Statistics SA.

Other key living standard measures showed that the proportion of households with access to electricity, water, toilets and waste removal rose significantly during that period, backing evidence that conditions for SA's poor are improving.

"The findings suggest that, in terms of several of the main dimensions of poverty, the situation is likely to have improved over the period 2002 to 2006," said Stats SA.

Analysts said it was hard to say how many of SA's 47,9-million people were poor as the term was relative, depending on the threshold used, and there was no standard measure for SA .

In its February budget, the treasury said that it would introduce an official poverty line for SA this year, based on minimum food needs and essential items, in order to measure the extent and nature of poverty and to monitor the pace at which it was being reduced.

Stats SA is preparing figures with a monthly income of R322 as one proposed threshold, with a final report due in the third quarter of this year.

Rapid growth in social grants -- which had risen an average of nearly 20% over each of the past four years -- got most of the credit for reducing poverty , although employment growth had played a role, said analysts. Grants for old age, disability, foster care and child support amounted to R10,9bn last year. This is about 12% of the total spent by the government and reaches nearly 13% of the population.

"We've seen a strong decline in poverty since 2002, mostly driven by the social grant," said Servaas van der Berg, an economics professor at the University of Stellenbosch. "The jobs which have been created generally don't go to the poor -- there is a long queue for jobs and the poor are at the end of it." Depending on which measure was used, 30%-60% of South Africans were poor, he said.

Standard Bank group economist Goolam Ballim believes that the government will halve poverty and unemployment by 2014, if the economy continues to grow at the robust annual pace of 5% seen over each of the past three years.

"Government policies are working. T here is momentum, better funding and better processes behind service delivery ."

However, Van der Berg said it was unlikely official poverty and unemployment goals would be met by 2014, although he saw a chance if the economy sustained the pace of job creation seen over the past few years. " We will get close, but probably not make it."

Official figures show that about 1,5-million jobs were created in the past three years, but SA is still saddled with a jobless rate of more than 25%, one of the highest in the world.

The percentage of households that used electricity climbed to 81,3% last year from 75,6% in 2002, while the ratio of households with piped water rose to 71,3% from 66,1%, showed Stats SA's figures.